Three constant facts about the state of the UK

The Conservatives are finished, Labour is frightened, and the curse of Boris Johnson haunts us still

Lowdown podcast 29: Why Labour’s timidity is a terrible mistake

You can listen on Apple (below) Spotify, Amazon, and every other podcast host

Please listen to the Lowdown interview with John McTernan. He ‘s one of the most interesting voices on the centre-left. An adviser to Labour governments in the UK and Australia, John is both a Blairite and a radical, who presents a cogent argument against the notion that Labour must prove its respectability by ditching its commitment to a green reworking of the UK economy.

The interview highlighted three truths about the UK that are lost in the rancorous pre-election debate.

The Tories are still heading for an epic defeat

Westminster journalists are desperate for a change of narrative, and a story about Labour falling apart under pressure suits the political biases of many of them (and of the men who own their media corporations). Today a single polling company (Savanta) showed a five-point drop in the Labour lead, and great online excitement followed. 

If the polling result is true, the Conservatives should comfortably hold the Wellingborough seat in the forthcoming by-election. If not, we should keep all the other polls showing enormous Labour leads in mind.

John talks about the possibility of the Conservatives being destroyed as a party of government. For British listeners, this is a fantastical way to think. The Conservatives have been in or close to power for centuries.

But traditional centre-right parties are everywhere being taken over by radical right politicians (as is the case with the Republicans in the US) or being replaced by new parties (as in France).

The UK has a strange far-right, radical-right, call-it-what-you-will party named Reform. It’s hitting 10 per cent in some polls. There is a debate among political journalists about whether the poll leads can be matched in real elections. If they are, the Conservatives face a wipe out.

Labour is a frightened party

The decision to run away from its green new deal and its plans to replace the House of Lords, along with its promises not to raise income, corporation, capital gains and council tax, show that Labour still has an imposter syndrome.