The bitter truth for Palestinians is that Hamas made the Israeli right stronger

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Photo by mohammed al bardawil on Unsplash

A belief in the “propaganda of the deed” has inspired revolutionary violence for 150 years.  The theory was first developed by the anarchist movements of the 19^th century. It passed on to 20^th century communists and fascists and then to today’s Islamists.

Planting a bomb, assassinating a president, massacring Israelis at a music festival is not mere bloodlust, the argument runs. The outrage will provoke the state into a terrible retribution that will in turn make the masses realise they have no option but to join the revolution.

You secure change by forcing the oppressors to reveal their true selves. In their fury, they show the iron fists beneath their velvet gloves.

Just occasionally the tactic works. The British decision to execute the leaders of the Easter 1916 rebellion outraged Irish opinion and began the march towards Irish independence. But, as so many anarchist, fascist and communist groups have found, when the state cracks down, most of the masses cheer its cops on.

The global left loves the drama of apocalyptic revolutionary violence. It is so much more thrilling and satisfying than compromise.

And yet the brute fact about brute force remains that it rarely works. In a famous study Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan ccollected data on all violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1900 to 2006 that resulted in the overthrow of a government or in territorial liberation. They concluded that non-violence was by far the most effective strategy.

Given the scale of repression Israel has unleashed on Lebanon and Gaza Strip, it is perhaps not so surprisingly that commentators have not dwelt on the failure of Hamas’s strategies.

The Jewish Chronicle asked me to write about them and it struck me as obvious that Hamas has brought down a catastrophe on the Palestinian people. You can blame Israel, and much of the world wants to blame Israel. But a political movement is judged by the results of its actions.

Hamas’s deeds provoked a terrifying Israeli reaction, no doubt about that. The velvet gloves were off.

The result, however, is that the Palestinians have suffered a historic defeat, and although antisemitism has exploded globally, Israel is stronger than ever.  

Here is my take

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Palestinians will be left with nothing, but antisemitism will become the new normal

As so often, the extremes agree. Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli right, and Iran and its Islamist proxies, are united in believing that Israel is in a war to the death.