As Trump’s victory has thrown the UK’s foreign policy into crisis, I thought it was a good moment to interview Tom Baldwin – Keir Starmer’s biographer, former aide to Ed Miliband, and all-round Labour insider.
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One point Tom made deserves far more attention than it has received. Now that Trump has won, the talk not just from Baldwin but from others close to Downing Street is of forcing Ukraine to accept a peace deal with Russia.
Here is Tom in our podcast
“If you had asked Western diplomats six or seven months ago, they'd have said, Ukraine has to win. Ukraine has to repel Russia from all its territory. You generally don't get those answers now. It's about where a ceasefire line can be drawn.”
Peter Mandelson was interviewed on the Laura Kuenssberg show on Sunday. Mandelson is tipped to become the UK’s ambassador to Trump’s Washington, and is clearly now delivering a party line.
Mandelson claimed that Ukrainian freedom was “sacrosanct” and no one could tell Ukrainians what to do. All well and good, you might think, but then came the inevitable “but”.
But, Mandelson continued, Ukraine could not join Nato. Instead, and in return for a deal with Putin, Nato and Europe might offer economic and military guarantees.
The problems with his proposal are legion. First of all, Ukraine has to trust Donald Trump, when he, J.D. Vance and Elon Musk have denigrated Ukrainian resistance at every turn.
Second Ukrainians are meant to accept that large portions of their country must remain under the control of Russian war criminals, who torture adults and abduct children.
Finally, everyone must trust Putin when he has broken every previous promise he made about Ukraine.
I accept that Labour has to try to work with Trump and his crew. But its hope that the US will stand with Ukraine, the UK and Europe is just magical thinking.
In a circuitous manner, Labour is returning to the Corbyn years. Corbyn gave Putin the benefit of the doubt after the Salisbury poisonings because it suited his anti-American ideology.
Starmer and Mandelson are giving Putin the benefit of the doubt because it suits their pro-American ideology, which in their naivety, they believe can somehow survive the far right taking power in Washington
Below is a long read from me explaining why they are deluded.
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I wonder if there is anything the UK govt would take a stand on. There are a lot of things Trump (or Musk) might like it to do.
The more I think about this the more depressed and angry I am getting.
Europe instead of accepting the new reality seems to be hoping they can survive the next 4 years at the expense of Ukraine and hoping it will all go back to normal after that. It won't!!
Europe needs to get serious about collective defence and security, it is also a gigantic opportunitiy for Labour to get concessions from Europe on trade and the economy by offering our superior security architecture to Europe as a trade-off. It just requires Starmers Labour to have the imagination to see the opportunity and pursue them.
What Europe needs to do now is act as if America will not come to their rescue ever again and start building up the required defence Industrial base to protect themselves, the German Debt Brake needs to go, the European Wide debt rules need to be dumped or at least massively changed. If they had the courage to do so, which they don't, this should be signal for Europe and the UK to send troops to fight side by side with Ukrainian soldiers on the front line. In short, it is time for Europe to accept that the world is a hell of a lot more dangerous and it needs to be prepared to defend itself.