Don't panic! Trump's gonna lose bigly - maybe!
Don't panic! Trump's gonna lose bigly - maybe!
Why you can’t believe the polls
The latest Lowdown podcast interview is with US-based journalist Ben Cohen. He casts doubt on the poll-driven narrative that Trump is gaining and is more likely than not to win the US presidential election.
You can listen on Apple here
On Spotify here
On Amazon here. And on every other podcast network via this link
I am working on a long read on an underrated criticism of “horse-race journalism”. To put it bluntly, the polling traditional political correspondents rely on is invariably hopelessly inadequate.
The pollsters got the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections wrong. They blundered again with the 2015, 2017 and 2024 UK general elections. And yet journalists continue to present readers with a discredited form of information, and pass it off as if it is serious research.
I can think of no other area of commentary where journalists rely on such discredited methods.
I hope the piece will be up in a few days
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Great podcast - a big difference regarding possible post-election violence is that in this election Trump isn’t in the Whitehouse, with all the enormous power of the state at his elbow. He can’t pardon anyone, he can’t control policing, he doesn’t control the DoJ. He does have his neo-blackshirts, but they’re all at risk of lengthy prison terms, and the rich ones being flight risks, might not make bail.
The gender gap in early voters is widening and breaking new records. It is plus 10% in most key swing states. According to Brookings this is nothing but very good news for Harris (duh!). The Supreme Court's overturning of Roe is going to hand the vote to Harris. What the Justices do afterwards with all the plots the Republicans have in play is another matter.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-gender-gaps-could-tip-the-presidential-race-in-2024/