Dare Labour politicians trust the public?

The Lowdown with James Hawes

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In our final Lowdown of 2023, I had a sparky end-of-year conversation with novelist, historian and friend of the podcast, James Hawes.

However bad the rest of the world might look by 31 December 2024 – Ukraine defeated, Trump re-elected, Putin resplendent – the UK will see a change, which all but the most committed Conservatives believe is long overdue. But what kind of change and how should the Labour party achieve it?

Hawes believes Labour should do nothing to frighten the voters. “If I were one of Keir Starmer’s spads, I would just say to him, ‘do not promise anything, do not commit to anything, for God's sake, don't make a list of manifesto commitments’.”

The country has made its mind up to rid itself of the Tories and all Labour needs to do is offer itself as the anti-Tory party.

There’s a hard and a soft version of this argument.

The soft version, which I have some sympathy with, is that Labour should offer a sense of direction rather than specific commitments.  Labour will liberalise the planning system, for example, so we can build more homes, offices and factories. But it won’t make specific promises to build  new towns on these fields in the home counties. The advantage of avoiding specifics is not only that the good people of Bedfordshire are not scared into voting Conservative but that no one can see the future.

We don’t know what will happen and what governments will need to do. All we can reasonably ask of politicians is that they give us the principles that will guide them through unforeseen crises.

Older readers will remember that this is what Margaret Thatcher did in 1979. Then there was an exhausted Labour government which no longer had a clue what to do. (Today we have a Conservative government in the same position.) Thatcher offered change. There were few specifics, however. She didn't proclaim herself to be the red-in-tooth-and-claw free marketeer she became in the mid-80s. She just made her direction of travel clear.

Starmer could offer broad themes – we will be far friendlier with our European allies, we will promote a fairer society – without getting bogged down.

But that is not what he is doing. Instead, the hard version of a “safety first” campaign is what we appear to have most days, as Labour rules out pretty much every distinctive policy. This year was the hottest year on record. Next year will be hotter. Yet fear of Tory attacks has led Labour to keep cutting back on its promise to spend £28 billion on tackling climate change, to quote the most blatant example.

By the time of the election, Labour could have so whittled down its options it will have few distinctive policies left.

Now before I criticise, I must acknowledge that there’s a lot to be said for removing a failed government by any means necessary.

Oliver Cromwell’s words ring as true today as they did in the 1650s “You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. In the name of God, go.” There is a fine democratic pedigree to the injunction “just throw the bastards out”.

The Labour leadership is clearly worried that voters can still be scared into supporting the Conservatives. Labour will still win but will win with a far smaller majority than today’s polls predict. A weak and insecure government follows, unable to fight the twin threats of English and Scottish nationalism, and at the mercy of factions on its back benches.

You can see why Labour politicians worry, and why Hawes has a point.

But there is an alternative danger. Labour is in power with a large majority but it has ruled out so many options it cannot govern effectively or meet this country’s multiple crises. The Tories and the SNP still flourish. Factionalism still divides the party. Populist nationalism still comes back. The UK remains a stagnant country facing an apparently inevitable decline.

The veteran Labour politician John Cruddas has a point when he says, “It is difficult to identify the purpose of a future Starmer government – what he seeks to accomplish beyond achieving office. Labour appears to be content for the coming election to amount to a referendum on the performance of the governing Conservatives rather than a choice between competing visions of politics and justice.”

It’s easy for journalists to pontificate from the sidelines, but a strong government needs a strong mandate and, as things stand, Labour is not asking for one.

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